Min Thayt
September 2023
The Arakan Army (AA) was established on April 10, 2009. Now Arakan Army has become a ethnic armed organization (EAOs) that has been in existence for more than 14 years. Arakan Army is one of the youngest armed organizations among EAOs in the whole of Myanmar. But now in 2023, the Arakan Army has become one of the most powerful armed organizations. According to a research paper published in 2022, the size of the Arakan Army (AA) is estimated to be over 30,000 troops. U Mg Mg Soe, a expert on ethnic affairs in Myanmar, said that the Arakan Army will reach the size of the United Wa State Army (UWSA). The UWSA officially expressed that there are about 30,000 troops, but on the ground, it can be estimated that there are up to 50,000 troops. The Arakan Army is assumed to have around 40,000 troops. In the comments of U Mg Mg Soe, an expert on ethnic affairs, he said that Rakhine youths willingly serve in the Arakan Army. There is no forced recruitment in the Arakan Army. U Mg Mg Soe commented that even young people who join the Arakan Army voluntarily are not accepted as permanent soldiers, so they are forced to go back to their home town after receiving military training. Currently, among the ethnic armed organizations in Myanmar, the Arakan Army has become one of the most systematic and powerful EROs. However, although the Arakan Army has a large number of troops, AA is still difficult to reach up like as UWSA’s military power. The Arakan Army is seeing a position where it will get the most future opportunities in the ethnic armed revolution. No matter how strong the UWSA grows, it has geographical weaknesses. Arakan state, represented by the Arakan Army, has many geographical advantages. The settatement area on the east side of Salwin River, where UWSA is based, is a landlocked area. Rakhine State is an area with 740 km long coastline. As a whole, Myanmar has a coastline of 2300 km. Arakan State has an outlet to the sea and has a geo-economic advantage of being able to communicate internationally and by sea. In addition, Arakan State is geopolitical interest area to world powers such as the United States, It is in a strategic location that attracts the attention of India and China. It is interesting how the Arakan Army will use the geographical advantages that Arakan State has.
In an interview with General Twan Mrat Naing, leader of the Arakan Army, reported by Asia Times on 2022 January 18, he said, “If we do not get the political status that the Arakanese want, we have an obligation to become members of the international community.” This may be the Arakan’ dream of a new country. In addition, he said that “If you are not allergic to family members, we have to live separately.” The leaders of the Arakan Army have not officially announced that they will establish a new state. However, it is seen that the attitude of rebuilding the Arakan Nation State that existed in the past has been expressed. The leaders of the Arakan Army seem to be fully willing to secede from Myanmar. But in reality, there are limits to practical separation. Therefore, it is found that they are trying to reach the farthest position from the control of the Central Government. This means the Confederation State status that Arakan Army leaders want. The Arakan Army is in a position to set higher political goals than the UWSA. This is because of the geographical strategic location of Arakan State.
- Can Rakhine state become a separate country from Myanmar?
- Is the Arakan Army capable of establishing a new Arakan Country?
- Will Myanmar face a major map change in the 21st century?
The narrative that the Myanmar Army (Tatmadaw) has always maintained is that the Union will not break up. After the 2021 military coup, the political narrative firmly held by the Myanmar’s autocratic military leaders has fallen hard among the public. In this situation, the union narrative becomes erosion slowly. The 2021 military coup has reached the state of the most widespread civil war. The Myanmar army has started to open new fronts on all ethnic areas. In the central region where the Burmese live, new armed organizations have emerged and rebelled against the Myanmar army. Armed movements against the military coup emerged and the Spring Revolution Movement emerged. The Spring Revolution was a mass movement against the military coup. In this mass movement, armed resistance to the military dictatorship as well as political opposition appeared in large numbers. In this spring revolutionary movement, the ideologies built by Myanmar military leaders were also broken. Among them, the political narrative of not disintegrating the union is under attack. When the people compare freedom and territorial stability, they will choose freedom. What the people of Myanmar want is freedom from oppression and fear. Freedom and justice are the direct interests of the people, and the permanence of the union territory is just a political story that is speculated.
- Can it be assumed that the deterioration of the political story of the Union during the Spring Revolution and the Arakan’s new country goal are mutually beneficial?
The ethnic ideology built between the Arakan Army and the Arakanese is nationalism. Arakanese nationalism is built on the basis of self-determination and confederation. In addition, the people of Arakan hope for the Arakan National Fatherland which existed in the past. Arakan Army leaders can build Arakanese nationalism and the trust of Arakan people. Arakan people also want the Arakan Nation State, which the leaders of the Arakan Army are aiming for.
- So, can we assume that the Arakan Army has been able to secede from the map of Myanmar as the new state of Arakan?
If the separation is to be done, it can be considered that the situation has been reached. However, the Myanmar military will use military force to prevent it by force.
- Has the Arakan Army made any preparations for this?
It can be assumed that this is not just a military issue. It is a matter of getting involved in regional and international issues. As Arakan Army, although it already has enough ideology, military strength and geographical advantages, when making a map change, it may face international diplomatic issues. The Arakan Army cannot function without the backing of a world power. In addition, there may be a situation that could affect the national security of India, which is close to Arakan state. The Arakan Army’s dream of secession can be seen as obstacles under the global geopolitical power competition. In addition, the relationship between the Myanmar military and China, including the relationship between the Myanmar military and India, will have to be considered. How Bangladesh feels about the emergence of a new Arakan state is very important. As Arakan Army, being able to build common interests with the Spring Revolution can be beneficial for Arakanese interests. On the other hand, defeating the Myanmar military dictator during the Spring Revolution will contribute to the success of the Arakan’s national dream. The time has come for the Arakan Army to take a step forward in establishing a new Arakan National Country.
Author:
Min Thayt is a political critic writer and is currently studying for a Master of Public Policy and Global Affairs at the University of British Columbia, Canada. His research area is Burmese socio-political culture and Myanmar Democratization. He has written many socio-political commentary articles and currently has 14 published books.
